Economists typically make simplifying assumptions to make the solution and estimation of their highly complex models feasible. These simplifications include approximating the true nonlinear dynamics of the model, disregarding aggregate uncertainty or assuming that all agents are identical. While...

Am 29.09.2022 hat die Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose der führenden deutschen Wirtschaftsforschungsinstitute ihr Herbstgutachten über die Entwicklung der Weltwirtschaft und der deutschen Wirtschaft vorgelegt. Mit dem Titel „Energiekrise: Inflation, Rezession, Wohlstandsverlust“...

We provide evidence for a causal link between the US economy and the global financial cycle. Using a unique intraday dataset, we show that US macroeconomic news releases have large and significant effects on global risky asset prices. Stock price indexes of 27 countries, the VIX, and commodity...

We present evidence that the rise in inflation in Japan since 2014 is a result of a hidden stagflation: the relative prices of durable consumption and ICT investment goods stopped declining, reflecting technology stagnation and exerting an inflationary pressure on the economy and; the real side...

Professors Eric Ghysels, Massimiliano Marcellino and Jonas Straukas will a three-day course entitled “What's New in Mixed Frequency Data (MIDAS), with Applications to Machine Learning and Big Data”. The focus of the course is the use of mixed frequency data in economics and finance. A...

Seit einem Jahr beherrscht die Inflation wieder die Schlagzeilen, und das nicht nur in Deutschland. Mit dem Krieg in der Ukraine erreichen die Inflationsraten neue Rekordhöhen. Die Antworten auf die Fragen: „Wie lässt sich die hohe Inflationsrate erklären? Inwieweit ist die...

We document a new fact: in U.S., European and Japanese surveys, households do not expect deflation, even in environments where persistent deflation is a strong possibility. This fact stands in contrast to the standard macroeconomic models with rational expectations. We extend a New Keynesian...

This policy panel will conclude our trilogy on the links between climate change and inflation. Our panelists will discuss the recent evidence of climate change and mitigation policies driving price levels and ask: are central banks in the position to act against these growing pressures? And what...

Donata Faccia, Miles Parker, and Livio Stracca, in their paper investigate how extreme temperatures affect medium-term inflation, the primary objective of monetary policy.

A mixed-frequency semi-structural model is used for estimating unobservable quantities such as the output gap, the Phillips curve and the NAIRU in real time. We consider two specifications: in one the output gap is observed as the official CBO measure, in the other is unobserved and derived via...