Piazzesi, Monika; Schneider, Martin - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta - 2008
optimize, the prices of bonds can be expressed
in terms of the distribution of their future payoffs together with current … Goldsmith-Nagan survey, available since 1970. We compare expected excess returns
on bonds implied by predictability regressions … that are common in the literature to expected excess
returns on bonds perceived by the median survey investor. The main …