González, Andrés; Hubrich, Kirstin; Teräsvirta, Timo - School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus - 2009
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Keywords: Nonlinear forecast; nonlinear model; nonlinear trend;
penalised likelihood; structural shift; time-varying … which
the in�ation process is assumed to contain two components: a deterministi-
cally time-varying mean and an … competition. Another interpretation
of the time-varying mean is to view it as a measure of the underlying trend
in in�ation that …