The no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model is used to analyse the impact of macroeconomic surprises on the nominal and the real term structure in the euro area and in the United States. We find that nominal rates are affected by surprises in economic growth, the labour market and the...

Estimates of the real term structure for the euro area implied by French index-linked bonds are obtained by means of a smoothing spline methodology. The real term structure allows computation of the constant-maturity inflation compensation, which is compared with the surveyed inflation...

This paper uses the celebrated no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model applied to index-linked and standard government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the US. Maximum likelihood estimates show that the model describes the...

What kind of information do stock prices offer for predicting velocity? This paper develops previous work by Milton Friedman for the US economy and shows that a wealth effect derived from the stock market has negatively influenced the ratio of nominal income to a broad definition of money in a...

This paper studies the effect of correlation in the retional beliefs of agents on the volatility of asset prices.

We examine the equity premium pizzle with the prespective of the theory of Rational Beliefs Equilibrium (RBE) and show that from the perspective of this theory there is no puzzle.

In this paper we exploit global analysis to explore welfare properties of a standard one-commodity GEI, under different notions of constrained Pareto optimality. In a unifying framework we revise and extend some of the leading results of the literature on incomplete markets and government...

We propose an objective for the firm in a model of production economies extending over time under uncertainty and with incomplete markets. We derive the objective of the firm from the assumption of initial-shareholders efficiency. Each shareholder is assumed to communicate to the firm her...

In an economy with a non-atomic measure space of assets and exchangeable risks, the Arbitrage pricing Theory (APT) holds exactly; and factors are structurally specified, which allows for an economic interpretation.

Equilibrium paths in an economy of overlapping generations are determinate. Time is either discrete or continuous; in either case, it extend into the infinite future and, possibly, the infinite past. There is one, nonstorable commodity at each date. The economy is stationary; intertemporal...