The no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model is used to analyse the impact of macroeconomic surprises on the nominal and the real term structure in the euro area and in the United States. We find that nominal rates are affected by surprises in economic growth, the labour market and the...

Estimates of the real term structure for the euro area implied by French index-linked bonds are obtained by means of a smoothing spline methodology. The real term structure allows computation of the constant-maturity inflation compensation, which is compared with the surveyed inflation...

This paper uses the celebrated no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model applied to index-linked and standard government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the US. Maximum likelihood estimates show that the model describes the...

This paper shows that information effects per se are not responsible for the Giffen goods anomaly affecting competitive traders’ demands in multi- asset, noisy rational expectations equilibrium models. The role that information plays in traders’ strategies also matters. In a market with risk...

What kind of information do stock prices offer for predicting velocity? This paper develops previous work by Milton Friedman for the US economy and shows that a wealth effect derived from the stock market has negatively influenced the ratio of nominal income to a broad definition of money in a...

This paper studies the effect of correlation in the retional beliefs of agents on the volatility of asset prices.

We examine the equity premium pizzle with the prespective of the theory of Rational Beliefs Equilibrium (RBE) and show that from the perspective of this theory there is no puzzle.

This paper studies the relationship between the amount of public information that stock market prices incorporate and the equilibrium behavior of market participants. The analysis is framed in a static, NREE setup where traders exchange vectors of assets accessing multidimensional information...

This paper analyzes empirically the volatility of consumption-based stochastic discount factors as a measure of implicit economic fears by studying its relationship with future economic and stock market cycles. Time-varying economic fears seem to be well captured by the volatility of stochastic...

I study the effects of the heterogeneity of traders' horizon in the context of a 2-period NREE model where all traders are risk averse. Owing to inventory effects, myopic trading behavior generates multiplicity of equilibria. In particular, two distinct patterns arise. Along the first...