This paper introduces a family of recursively defined estimators of the parameters of a diffusion process. We use ideas of stochastic algorithms for the construction of the estimators. Asymptotic consistency of these estimators and asymptotic normality of an appropriate normalization are proved....

Recently, models of limit order markets, particularly those of the continuous double auction, are subject to an intense research. Due to their complexity, the models are regarded to be analytically intractable. In the present paper, nonetheless, a closed form result is derived: the conditional...

This paper documents nonlinear cross-sectional dependence in the term structure of U.S. Treasury yields and points out risk management implications. The analysis is based on a Kalman filter estimation of a two-factor affine model which specifies the yield curve dynamics. We then apply a broad...

Heteroskedasticity in returns may be explainable by trading volume. We use different volume variables, including surprise volume---i.e. unexpected above-average trading activity---which is derived from uncorrelated volume innovations. Assuming weakly exogenous volume, we extend the Lamoureux and...

Recently, the continuous double auction, i.e. the trading mechanism used in the majority of the financial markets, is the subject of an extensive study. In the present paper, a model of the continuous double auction with the completely random flow of the limit orders is studied. The main result...

There are three crucial mathematical system concepts in Finance, which are either being confused or misapplied - uncertainty, complexity and rank. First, the concept of epistemic uncertainty is sufficient for modeling and the concept of probability is unnecessary. This is illustrated by...

We argue that the conventional predictive regression between implied volatility (regressor) and realized volatility over the remaining life of the option (regressand) is likely to be a fractional cointegrating relation. Since cointegration is associated with long-run comovements, this finding...

In specifications of tastes and technology, econometricians often impose curvature globally, but monotonicity only locally or not at all. In fact monotonicity rarely is even mentioned in that literature. But without satisfaction of both curvature and monotonicity, the second order conditions for...

A family of credit risk models is proposed to capture three salient features of Latin American (LA) Sovereign Bond Markets: individual Long Range Dependence in volatility---Long Memory (LM)---, high fractional comovement and time varying risk premia. Evidence in favor of LM is uncovered and the...

This paper investigates the order in which new information is first reflected in the market – through changes in spreads or through updated depths. We develop an error correction model of spreads and depths and estimate Gonzalo-Granger common factor components using two years of tick-by-tick...