We model how excess demand or excess supply can be generated in the presence of a social network of interactions, where agents are subject to external information and individual incentives. In this context we study price fluctuations in financial markets under equilibrium. In particular, we...

Theoretical literature in finance has shown that quantifying the risk of financial time series amounts to measuring their expected shortfall, also known as tail Value at Risk. Unfortunately, little empirical work has been devoted to the problem of modeling and inference of such risk measures...

Exchange rate markets exhibit correlation in the short run, but the issue is whether such correlation lingers over long periods of time, and under extreme events (i.e., either large appreciations or depreciations). In this paper, we analyze dependence between nominal exchange rates under extreme...

Recorded prices are known to diverge from their "efficient" values due to the presence of market microstructure contaminations. The microstructure noise creates a dichotomy in the model-free estimation of integrated volatility. While it is theoretically necessary to sum squared returns that are...

This paper examines the long-run dynamics and the cyclical structure of the US stock market using fractional integration techniques. We implement a version of the tests of Robinson (1994a), which enables one to consider unit (or fractional) roots both at the zero (long-run) and at the cyclical...

We propose a novel estimator for the stochastic discount factor (SDF) in a panel-data context. Under general conditions it depends exclusively on appropriate averages of asset returns, and its computation is a direct exercise, as long as one has enough observations to our asymptotic results. We...

We consider the behavior of the price of a continuously stored commodity, for which discounted price is a non-constant martingale, and thus not-predictable. We prove that the discounted price realization is within any given neighborhood of zero, with any given probability less than 1, beyond a...

While the existence of fixed costs in entering asset markets is the leading rationalization of the "participation puzzle" -the fact that most households do not hold stocks, despite the diversification gains and the significant risk-premium involved-, most motivations of these fixed costs are as...

Economies respond differently to aggregate shocks that reduce output. While some countries rapidly recover their pre-crisis trend, others stagnate. Recent studies provide empirical support for a connection between aggregate growth and plant dynamics through their effect on productivity: the...