Standard Monte Carlo methods can often be significantly improved with the addition of appropriate variance reduction techniques. In this paper a new and powerful variance reduction technique is presented. The method is based directly on the Ito calculus and is used to find unbiased variance...

This paper presents a small-noise version of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) which allows us to interpret the approximate linearity of the risk premia in terms of factor exposures for a fixed number of assets. The approximation becomes more accurate as the noise of the system decreases, even...

This paper investigates whether the ex-dividend drop-offs for ADRs differ from the ex-dividend drop-offs of their underlying Australian stocks. An expected source of difference in the valuation of dividends, and hence in the drop-offs, is the availability of imputation tax credits to Australian...

Accounting and finance professionals have empirically known that in the long run stock prices are roughly proportional to earnings. However, econometric testing could not been able to verify this expected contribution of earnings to stock prices, thus formed the price-earnings (PE) puzzle in the...

This paper seeks to model the adjustment process in the stock market by a continuous time state space model focusing on input-out relations. The value of the S&P 500 is generated as the output of the model with earnings and the interest rate as input. The model is found to fit the data well, and...

Modern day equity markets are populated by investors pursuing a number of investment styles. In this paper we simulate the behaviour of investors pursuing various types of these styles in order to examine whether their interaction is a major contributing factor to inefficiencies within markets...

This paper proposes a new test based on a Fourier series expansion to approximate the unknown functional form of a nonlinear time-series model. The test specifically allows for structural breaks, seasonal parameters and time-varying parameters. The test is shown to have evry good size and power...

This paper builds upon the authors' previous work on transformation of the Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) model of the term structure of interest rates to state space form for a fairly general class of volatility specification including stochastic variables. Estimation of this volatility function is...

The equity premium forecasting literature provides ample evidence of predictability for both fundamental economic variables and non-fundamental variables, such as time-series momentum. In this paper, we study the role of investor setiment in equity premium predictability. Consistent with the...

We introduce a heterogeneous agent asset pricing model in continuoustime to show that trend chasing, switching and herding all contribute to market volatility in price and return and volatility clustering, but their impact are different. On the one hand, the fluctuations of market price and...