This article investigates the statistical and economic implications of adaptive forecasting of exchange rates with panel data and alternative predictors. The candidate exchange rate predictors are drawn from (i) macroeconomic ‘fundamentals’, (ii) return/volatility of asset markets and (iii)...

This paper investigates the relationship between market overconfidence and occurrence of stock-price bubbles. Sixty participants traded stocks in ten experimental asset markets. Markets were constructed on the basis of subjects’ overconfidence, measured in pre-experimental sessions. The most...

This paper shows how exact solutions for the transient density of a large class of continuous-time Markov switching models can be obtained. We illustrate the pertinent approach for both simple diffusion models with a small number of regimes as well as for the more complicated so-called Poisson...

In this paper we analyze transitions in the stock markets of the US, the UK, and Germany. For all this markets we find that while the markets were focused on stocks from the IT and technology sector around the year 2000, this focus has vanished and the markets have mostly moved towards a focus...

This study analyzes the emergence of secular stagnation as the consequence of a rise in the preference for liquidity. Such a rise is caused by a persistent set of pessimistic expectations. This study also investigates the effectiveness of a broad range of demand-management policies in dealing...

We show that technical indicators deliver economic value in predicting the U.S. equity premium. A crucial element of this value stems from the stability of return predictability over the full sample period from 1950 to 2013. Results tentatively improve over time and beat alternatives over...

Maximum likelihood estimation of discretely observed diffusion processes is mostly hampered by the lack of a closed form solution of the transient density. It has recently been argued that a most generic remedy to this problem is the numerical solution of the pertinent Fokker-Planck (FP) or...

A popular interpretation of the Rational Expectations/Efficient Markets hypothesis states that, if the hypothesis holds, then market valuations must follow a random walk. This postulate has frequently been criticized on the basis of empirical evidence. Yet the assertion itself incurs what we...

This paper examines empirically whether oil price shocks impact stock market returns. Using monthly data for eight developed countries from January 1991 to September 2013, strong negative connections between oil price and stock market returns are found in seven of the selected countries. Oil...

In the aftermath of the Great Recession and during the debt crisis in the euro area yields on German federal bonds have been exceptionally low. This analysis tries to calculate the profits that the federal government makes due to the low yields. The interest payments that are due to emissions of...