We study how the social transmission of public news influences investors' beliefs and securities markets. Using an extensive dataset to measure investor social networks, we find that earnings announcements from firms in higher-centrality locations generate stronger immediate price and trading...

We construct a perpetual youth DSGE model with aggregate un- certainty in which there are dynamically complete markets and agents have Epstein-Zin preferences. We prove that, when endowments have a realistic hump-shaped age-profile, our model has three steady-state equilibria. One of these...

We exploit regional variations in exposure to heat stress to study if physical climate risk is priced in municipal and corporate bonds as well as in equity markets. We find that local exposure to damages related to heat stress equaling 1% of GDP is associated with municipal bond yield spreads...

We estimate perceptions about the Fed's monetary policy rule from micro data on professional forecasters. The perceived rule varies significantly over time, with important consequences for monetary policy and bond markets. Over the monetary policy cycle, easings are perceived to be quick and...

Do "real" assets protect against inflation? Core inflation betas of stocks are negative while energy betas are positive; currencies, commodities, and real estate also mostly hedge against energy inflation but not core. These hedging properties are reflected in the prices of inflation risks: only...

We study aggregate lapsation risk in the life insurance sector. Using the regulatory reporting of historical lapse rates by life insurers, we empirically document the counter-cyclicality of lapsation behavior. We construct two lapsation risk factors that explain a large fraction of the common...

We introduce FDIF, a measure of Fed communication surprise based on the text of FOMC statements. FDIF measures the difference between text-implied and actual values of key market variables. Positive FDIF of countercyclical variables (e.g., credit spreads) is associated with negative...

We document regime change in the U.S. Treasury market post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC): dealers switched from a net short to a net long position in the Treasury market. We first derive bounds on Treasury yields that account for dealer balance sheet costs, which we call the net short and net...

Active equity funds care about fund size, affected by fund flows that obey a strong factor structure with the common component responding to macroeconomic shocks. Funds hedge against common flows by tilting their portfolios toward low-flow-beta stocks, while household/retail and index investors...

We show theoretically that variable production costs lower systematic risk of firms' cash flows if capital and variable inputs are complementary in firms' production and input prices are pro-cyclical. In our dynamic model, this operating hedge effect is weaker for more profitable firms, giving...