This paper investigates the process of deriving a single decision solely based on the decisions made by a population of experts. Four different amalgamation processes are studied and compared among one another, collectively referred to as central decision makers. The expert, also referred to as...

In a traditional mean-variance approach a portfolio is represented by the allocation vector optimized in terms of expected returns and variances. Basic assumption is that the allocation vector may only be the driver of a portfolio risk-reward trade-off, while all constituent assets are fully...

This paper reports on the use of multi-agent games to model financial markets. Our research employs multi-agent games to address three questions which are of great practical importance in quantitative finance: how profit opportunities may be identified, large price movements predicted, and...

The aim of this paper is to show, within the mean-variance framework, how the market belief can be constructed as the result of the aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs and how the market equilibrium prices of risky assets can thus be determined. The heterogeneous beliefs are defined in terms of...

In many traditional financial and economic models, economic agents are assumed to make decisions using expected lifetime utility under rational expectations, where rational expectations are assumed to be formed on the basis of sufficient knowledge of the data generating process. But the mere...

The termstructure of interest rates is an instrument that gives us the necessary information for valueing deterministic financial cash flows, measuring the economic market expectations and testing the effectiveness of monetary policy decissions. However, it is not directly observable and needs...

To match the stylised facts of goods and labour markets, the canonical New Keynesian model augments the optimising neoclassical growth model with nominal and real rigidities. We ask what the implications of this type of model are for asset prices. Using a second-order numerical solution to the...

This paper contributes to the development of recent literature on the explanation power and calibration issue of heterogeneous asset pricing models by presenting a simple stochastic market fraction asset pricing model of two types of traders (fundamentalists and trend followers) under a market...

Equity market crashes or booms are extreme realizations of the underlying return distribution. This paper questions whether booms are more or less likely than crashes and whether emerging markets crash more frequently than developed equity markets. We apply Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to...