This paper develops and simulates a three-period life-cycle model with aggregate uncertainty. The model incudes a market in risk-free bonds. The paper studies how uncertainty in fiscal policy affects welfare, the equity premium, risk-sharing, and the caculation of generational accounts.

This paper extends the Auerbach-Kotlikoff life-cycle simulation model by incorporating demographic change, including lifespan extension, and multiple earnings groups within each cohort. The model is used to study the U.S. demographic transition. To ensure a realistic pattern of fertility by age,...

We evaluate the stability of risk-sharing contracts in the presence of moral hazard. Contracts are rules for sharing output among producers and affect the extent of private investments in production. Organizations, which are identified with the contracts they offer, compete for membership....

To address how systems of computational agents, working alone, in teams, or with humans, can cooperate to solve problems and advance technology more autonomously than the current generation of remotely controlled unmanned systems, it is increasingly clear that a revolution in computing...

Despite a large literature documenting that the efficacy of monetary policy depends on how inflation expectations are anchored, many monetary policy models assume: (1) the inflation target of moentary policy is constant; and, (2) the inflation target is known by all economic agents. This paper...

For many environmental problems regulators are uncertain about both the costs of abatement and the stock-related damages. For example, governments have imperfect information about damages caused by greenhouse gas stocks, and also about the costs of abating greenhouse gas emissions. They acquire...

In this paper, we propose use of the influence diagram for stock portfolio selection. We use an algorithm that applies the mutual information as the metric to guide the refinement of the influence diagram. We applied the algorithm to the conceptual refinement of the influence diagram. We tested...