Empirical evidence suggests that many macroeconomic and financial time series are subject to occasional structural breaks. In this paper we present analytical results quantifying the effects of such breaks on the correlation between the forecast and the realization and on the ability to forecast...

This paper examines the role of pricing errors in linear factor pricing models, allowing for observed strong and semi-strong factors, and latent weak factors. It focusses on the estimation of ∅k = λk − μk which plays a pivotal role, not only in the estimation of risk premia but also in...

This paper proposes a novel test of zero pricing errors for the linear factor pricing model when the number of securities, N, can be large relative to the time dimension, T, of the return series. The test is based on Student t tests of individual securities and has a number of advantages over...

This paper proposes a new double-question survey method that elicits information about how individuals.subjective belief valuations are compared and related to their price expectations. An individual respondent is presented with two sets of questions, one that asks about his/her belief regarding...

This paper is concerned with empirical and theoretical basis of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH). The paper begins with an overview of the statistical properties of asset returns at different frequencies (daily, weekly and monthly), and considers the evidence on return predictability, risk...

In this paper we are concerned with the role of factor strength and pricing errors in asset pricing models, and their implications for identification and estimation of risk premia. We establish an explicit relationship between the pricing errors and the presence of weak factors that are...

This paper examines the implications of pricing errors and factors that are not strong for the Fama-MacBeth two-pass estimator of risk premia and its asymptotic distribution when T is fixed with n → ∞, and when both n and T → ∞, jointly. While the literature just distinguishes strong and...

The arbitrage pricing theory (APT) attributes differences in expected returns to exposure to systematic risk factors, which are typically assumed to be strong. In this paper we consider two aspects of the APT. Firstly we relate the factors in the statistical factor model to a theoretically...