This paper studies the role of fluctuations in the aggregate price-earning ratio at different time-scales, for predicting stock returns and exploring the channels through which returns are forecasted. Using U.S. quartely data, we find that cycles in the price-earning ratio are strong and better...

Our earlier papers had extended to asymmetric information some classical existence theorems of general equilibrium theory, under the standard assumption that agents had perfect foresights, that is, they knew at the outset which price would prevail tomorrow on each spot market. Yet, observation...