The stock market is evolving, and investors are learning. This paper investigates the role of perpetual learning in excess return forecasts. We find that perpetual learning usually delivers statistically and economically significant out-of-sample gains relative to the historical average.

We examine time-varying correlations among stock market returns, implied volatility and policy uncertainty. Our findings suggest that correlations are indeed time-varying and sensitive to oil demand shocks and US recessions.

We generalise the impulse response function of Elder (2003) by considering indirect volatility spillovers for a VAR model with multivariate GARCH-in-Mean. The extension is relevant for variables that exhibit direct and indirect volatility spillovers (Tsiaplias and Chua, in press).

This paper shows that “wait-and-see” dynamics of uncertainty shocks in Bloom (2009) are not necessarily robust over time. Bloom (2009) shows that uncertainty shocks, identified by spikes in stock market volatility from 1962 to 2008, trigger immediate falls in output and employment followed...

The relationship between stock returns and inflation is examined for the G7 countries and some positive coefficients in the distribution for Italy and the UK were revealed. A positive one-for-one relationship is found once a GARCH filter is employed in all cases except Canada.

Generating a high positive excess return in a prospective period does not necessarily increase the empirical Sharpe ratio of an investment fund. Therefore, we derive a critical range in which prospective excess returns must lie in order to increase its empirical Sharpe ratio. We also give a...

This paper investigates tax reasons for cross-sectional deviations from the general consensus in literature that a firm’s cash flow has a positive effect on dividend payout. We use a large multinational panel data set to show that the positive cash flow sensitivity of dividends is decreasing...

A restricted-perceptions equilibrium exists in which risk-averse agents believe stock prices follow a random walk with a conditional variance that is self-fulfilling. When agents estimate risk, bubbles and crashes arise. These effects are stronger when agents allow for ARCH in excess returns.

Art is often used as an investment vehicle. Given the importance of market efficiency in finance, we use a large auction-based index to test whether the art market is weakly efficient. Evidence reveals that returns on artworks exhibit high positive auto-correlation. We attribute this result to...

This paper proposes an extension to threshold-type switching models that lets the threshold variable be a linear combination of exogenous variables with unknown coefficients. An algorithm to estimate the model’s parameters by least squares is provided and the validity of the methodological...