We develop an estimator for publication bias and apply it to 156 hedge portfolios based on published cross-sectional return predictors. Publication bias adjusted returns are only 12% smaller than in-sample returns. The small bias comes from the dispersion of returns across predictors, which is...

We propose a method to decompose stock returns period by period. First, we argue that one can directly estimate expected stock returns from securities available in modern financial markets (using the real yield curve and the Martin (2017) equity risk premium). Second, we derive a return...

We provide data and code that successfully reproduces nearly all crosssectional stock return predictors. Our 319 characteristics draw from previous meta-studies, but we differ by comparing our t-stats to the original papers' results. For the 161 characteristics that were clearly significant in...

Solutions to the equity premium puzzle should inform us about the cross-section of stock returns. An external habit model with heterogeneous firms reproduces numerous stylized facts about both the equity premium and the value premium. The equity premium is large, time-varying, and linked with...

We provide novel evidence that hedge fund performance is persistent following weak hedge fund markets, but is not persistent following strong markets. Specifically, we construct two performance measures, DownsideReturns and UpsideReturns, conditioned on the level of overall hedge fund sector...

Using high frequency data, we develop an event study method to test for level shifts in beta and measure abnormal returns for events that produce such level shifts. Using this method, we estimate abnormal returns for the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) announcement and find that its...

Using positions data on bond futures, I document that speculators' spread trades contain private information about future economic activities and asset prices. Strong steepening trades are associated with negative payroll surprises in subsequent months and can predict asset markets' reaction to...

This paper documents a significantly stronger relationship between the slope of the yield curve and future excess bond returns on Treasuries from 2008-2015 than before 2008. This new predictability result is not matched by the standard shadow rate model with Gaussian factor dynamics, but...

We investigate the uncertainty dynamics surrounding extreme weather events through the lens of option and stock markets by identifying market responses to the uncertainty regarding both potential hurricane landfall and subsequent economic impact. Stock options on firms with establishments...

We document strong U.S. stock and bond return predictability from several macroeconomic volatility series before 1982, and a significant decline in this predictability during the Great Moderation. These findings are robust to alternative empirical specifications and out-of-sample tests. We...