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than by GARCH type volatility estimates. The t-DCC estimation procedure is applied to a portfolio of daily returns on …-DCC specification. The t-DCC model also passes a number of VaR diagnostic tests over an evaluation sample. The estimation results … suggest a general trend towards a lower level of return volatility, accompanied by a rising trend in conditional cross …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316934
The interest rate represents an important monetary policy tool to steer investment in order to reach price stability. Therefore, implications of the exact form and magnitude of the interest rate-investment nexus for the European Central Bank's effectiveness in a low interest rate environment...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012863789
volatility of both inflation and unemployment differentials. Finally, we show that it is important to take into account the … and real wage rigidities. In our analysis, we focus on the differentials in inflation and unemployment between countries … inflation and unemployment differentials. Second, we find that asymmetries in labor market structures tend to increase the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107467
What is the relationship between economic growth and its volatility? Does political instability affect growth directly … or indirectly, through volatility? This paper tries to answer such questions using a power-ARCH framework with annual … and legislative changes) has an indirect (through volatility) negative impact. We also find preliminary support for the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766848
business cycle volatility, hinting at a stabilizing effect of public employment, while public wages correlate weakly and … positively with business cycle volatility, hinting at a destabilizing effect of public wages. To explain these relationships, we …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012989839
paper offers a solution to this disagreement, suggesting that volatility carries a positive direct effect, but also a … volatility is then ambiguous. The paper reveals the underlying endogeneity of government size in a balanced panel of 95 countries … increase of volatility lowers growth by up to 0.57 percentage points in a democracy, but raises growth by 1.74 percentage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013071293
proposed. The expression for a modified likelihood function is obtained for estimation and inference in a fixed-T context …. Using a bias-corrected likelihood approach makes it possible to reduce the estimation bias to a term of order 1/Tᄇ. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013148328
Real wages are a key determinant of marginal costs. The latter themselves are a driving force of inflation. We ask how … wages and labor market shocks feed into the inflation process. We model search and matching frictions in the labour market …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318057
consensus is that real wage rigidities can be a useful mechanism to induce the inflation persistence that is absent in the … account, the results change dramatically, both qualitatively and quantitatively. Real wage rigidities imply neither inflation … inflation target of the monetary policy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766891
This paper connects two salient economic features: (i) Fiscal shocks have asymmetric effects across business cycle phases (Gechert et al., 2019); (ii) Okun's coefficient is time varying and may be unstable. The intertwined dynamic behavior of fiscal shocks and unemployment-output trade-offs are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012864881