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Simple regression tests that have power against the alternatives that. asset prices and expected future asset returns are excessively volatile are developed and performed for the foreign exchange and stock markets. These tests have a number of advantages over alternative, variance hounds...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476706
This paper compares several statistical models for monthly stock return volatility. The focus is on U.S. data from 1834 … volatility that are inconsistent with stationary models for conditional heteroskedasticity, We show the importance of … of stock volatility, even over the 1834-1925 period …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476093
This paper is an investigation into the determinants of asymmetries in stock returns. We develop a series of cross-sectional regression specifications which attempt to forecast skewness in the daily returns of individual stocks. Negative skewness is most pronounced in stocks that have...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471074
It appears that volatility in equity markets is asymmetric: returns and conditional volatility are negatively … correlated. We provide a unified framework to simultaneously investigate asymmetric volatility at the firm and the market level … empirical evidence on asymmetry to Japanese stocks. Although volatility asymmetry is present and significant at the market and …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012472796
We investigate a consumption-based present value relation that is a function of future dividend growth. Using data on aggregate consumption and measures of the dividend payments from aggregate wealth, we show that changing forecasts of dividend growth make an important contribution to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012469093
volatility …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012476144
It is sometimes argued that an increase in stock market volatility raises required stock returns, and thus lowers stock … for this volatility feedback effect. The resulting model is asymmetric, because volatility feedback amplifies large … for large crashes. The model also implies that volatility feedback is more important when volatility is high. In U …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012475263
It is well known that high-frequency asset returns are fat-tailed relative to the Gaussian distribution tails are typically reduced but not eliminated when returns are standardized by volatilities estimated from popular models such as GARCH. We consider two major dollar exchange rates, and we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012471288
the relation between exchange rate variability and stock return volatility and by decomposing this relation into … rates, we find a significant increase in the volatility of U.S. multinational monthly stock returns corresponding to the … period of increased exchange rate variability. This increase in stock return volatility is also significant relative to the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012473547
forecasting of daily and lower frequency volatility and return distributions. Most procedures for modeling and forecasting … ARCH or stochastic volatility models, which often perform poorly at intraday frequencies. Use of realized volatility … variation, we formally develop the links between the conditional covariancematrix and the concept of realized volatility. Next …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012470566