This paper investigates the role of Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) protection and Environmental Policies (EPs) on clean (renewable) and dirty (fossil-based) technology diffusion from top-innovators. IPR protection and EPs are extensively debated policy tools, as IPR protection addresses...

Expert elicitations are frequently used to characterize future technology outcomes. However their usefulness is limited, in part because: estimates across studies are not easily comparable; choices in survey design and expert selection may bias results; and over-confidence is a persistent...