We develop a new monthly panel survey of business executives and a new question design that elicits subjective … probability distributions over own-firm outcomes at a one-year lookahead horizon. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) began …

We draw on the monthly Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) to make three observations about pandemic-era uncertainty … uncertainty at one-year lookahead horizons. That is, the one-year VIX has moved similarly to our survey-based measure of (average …