This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US business cycles for the 1790–1928 period using the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) constructed by Johnson and Williamson (2007). We compare the alternative chronology with those of the NBER and Davis (2006) as well as Romer (1994) for...

In this paper, we attempt to examine the speculative efficiency hypothesis on CO2 emission allowance prices negotiated on Bluenext, by testing the rela- tionship between futures and spot prices from the Fama (1970) framework. This approach is based on the joint hypothesis of no risk premium and...

After years of low macroeconomic volatility since the early eighties, well documented and referred to as the Great Moderation period in the literature, the 2008-2009 worldwide recession adversely impacted output levels in most of advanced countries. This Great Recession period was characterized...

This article extends earlier efforts at redating the US industrial cycles for the prewar period (1890-1938) using the methodologies proposed by Bry and Boschan (1971) and Hamilton (1989) and based on the monthly industrial production index constructed by Miron and Romer (1990). The alternative...

In this paper, we compare the properties of the main criteria proposed for selecting the number of factors in dynamic factor model in a small sample. Both static and dynamic factor numbers' selection rules are studied. Simulations show that the GR ratio proposed by Ahn and Horenstein (2013) and...

In this paper, we test the presence of stochastic trend in long series of US real GNP measured by Balke and Gordon (1989) and Romer (1989). This is analyzed from two recent robust unit root tests proposed by Cavaliere and Georgiev (2009) and Lima and Xiao (2010), for which critical values are...

This study examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) for the market of carbon emission allowances within the European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during the Phase I and the Phase II, using both daily and weekly data over the period 2005--2009. The weak-form efficient market...

This article compares the performances of some non-stationarity tests on simulated series, using the business-cycle model of Chang et al. (2007) [Y. Chang, T. Doh, F. Schorfheide, (2007). Non-stationary Hours in a DSGE Model. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 39, 357-1373] as data generating...

In this paper we examine the large shocks due to major economic or financial events that affected U.S. macroeconomic time series on the period 1860–1988, using outlier methodology. We show that these shocks can have temporary or permanent effects on the series and that most of them can be...

This article examines the convergence of real GDP per capita in the Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) during the period 1950-2003. Income departures across countries were evaluated from several panel data unit root tests, especially we consider the absolute and conditional...