This paper analyzes the implications of unobserved heterogeneity in discrete-time, discrete-choice microsimulation models. We compare the predictions coming from simple pooled probit estimates with those obtained using random effect dynamic probit models, in a dynamic microsimulation of...

Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...

Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...

In Italy, employment in waste collection has been widely used to reduce unemployment and create political consensus (especially in the South). Having secure jobs allows people to achieve income stability. But, income is just a means to an end and the goods and services or ‘commodities’ it...

In the recent discussion on productivity and how to foster it, the role of wage dispersion as determinant of workers productivity attracted much attention. But, what are the determinant of wage dispersion? In this paper, we analyze a very specific determinant of wage dispersion: job-to-job labor...