We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Recessions in the 1970s and 1980s were driven primarily by supply shocks, later recessions were driven primarily by demand shocks, and the Great...

The equity variance risk premium is the expected compensation earned for selling variance risk in equity markets. The variance risk premium is positive and shows moderate persistence. High variance risk premiums coincide with the left tail of the consumption growth distribution shifting down....

Innovations in volatility constitute a potentially important asset pricing risk factor that can be tested using the return on variance swaps. We characterize the exposures of returns on equities, bonds and currencies in all regions of the world to U.S. based equity variance risk. We explore...

We propose an extension of standard asymmetric volatility models in the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) class that admits conditional non-Gaussianities in a tractable fashion. Our "bad environment-good environment" (BEGE) model utilizes two gamma-distributed...

Building on intuition from the dynamic asset pricing literature, we uncover unobserved risk aversion and fundamental uncertainty from the observed time series of the variance premium and the credit spread while controlling for the conditional variance, expectations about the macroeconomic...

We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Recessions in the 1970s and 1980s were driven primarily by supply shocks; later recessions by demand shocks. We estimate macro risk factors that...

We use non-Gaussian features in U.S. macroeconomic data to identify aggregate supply and demand shocks while imposing minimal economic assumptions. Macro risks represent the variables that govern the time-varying variance, skewness and higher-order moments of these two shocks, with "good"...

We introduce a "bad environment-good environment" technology for consumption growth in a consumption-based asset pricing model. Using the preference structure from Campbell and Cochrane (1999), the model generates realistic time-varying volatility, skewness and kurtosis in fundamentals while...

We introduce a "bad environment-good environment" technology for consumption growth in a consumption-based asset pricing model. Using the preference structure from Campbell and Cochrane (1999), the model generates realistic non-Gaussian features of fundamentals while still permitting closed-form...