This article proposes a reading of the armed conflict from an evolutionary design that takes into account the concept of private protection agencies in the works of Schelling / Nozick / Gambetta. Their aim is to assess the dynamics of conflict and changes from its author's scientific output. A...

This article evaluates Herbert A. Simon’s contribution to organization theory, placing special emphasis on the criterion of bounded rationality. Simon’s criticism of the orthodox version of organizational bureaucracy is interpreted and his analysis is extended to institutional economics. One...

In this brief note describes the trajectory of the fractal models/multifractal F/M by Benoit Mandelbrot. The promise was discovered by the geometry of Mandelbrot covers a broad area of research fields, from meteorology and mathematical physics to the individual and collective behavior in...

Several methods have been proposed in the last few years for evaluating uncertainty in forecasts produced by nonlinear econometric models. Some methods resort to Monte Carlo, while others resort to different simulation techniques. This work aims at comparing these methods by means of experiments...

When econometric models are used as forecasting tools, forecast errors can be decomposed into several components, one of which is due to estimation errors, while another one is due to the stochastic nature of the variables to be predicted. Conditional on model's specification and on the...

Most of the methods proposed in the literature for evaluating forecast uncertainty in econometric models need an estimate of the structural coefficiencs covariance matrix among input data. When estimation is performed with full information maximum likelihood, alternative estimators of such a...

Full information maximum likelihood estimation of econometric models, linear and nonlinear in variables, is performed by means of two gradient algorithms, using either the Hessian matrix or a computationally simpler approximation. In the first part of the paper, the behavior of the two methods...

This paper examines relationships between theory of financial risk and size. Based on the work of Makridakis / Taleb [2009] and Taleb / Tapiero [2009], presents the problems of excessive risk and imbalances caused by the size of firms. Markets mixed on firm growth traps externalities can...

It is purpose of this paper to evidence, in the behaviour of the Mini-DMS model for the French economy, some stochastic properties which may confirm, strengthen or sometimes contradict the results obtained from the standard simulation analysis, which is purely deterministic. In particular, the...

Multipliers are often used for selecting alternative policies in economic planning and forecasting. Particular variables like employment, trade balance, inflation or government budget usually impose constraints on the policy action. Therefore a criterion to be preferred to the raw multiplier...