When econometric models are used as forecasting tools, forecast errors can be decomposed into several components, one of which is due to estimation errors, while another one is due to the stochastic nature of the variables to be predicted. Conditional on model's specification and on the...

A well known macroeconometric model of the Italian economy is updated to produce forecasts at 1974.

Problems related to deterministic solution of nonlinear econometric models are well known in the literature. The use of mean (average) stochastic simulation results has been usually proposed to solve the problem of bias. This raises however other types of problems, like possible non-coherent...

This paper describes the results of some stochastic simulation experiments performed on the most updated version of the Italian model. Due to a change in the income accounts system, the model has been completely reestimated using the new quarterly data. It consists of 128 equations, 50 of which...

The estimation method of Two Stage Least Squares (2SLS) with Principal Components (2SPC) is applied to a medium-sized nonlinear econometric model of the Italian Economy.

Experiments of stochastic simulation on a nonlinear macroeconometric model are described in this paper. The results are used both for improving the validation of a model of the Italian economy and for revisiting the heuristic value of the stochastic simulation methodology.