Simulation estimators, such as indirect inference or simulated maximum likelihood, are successfully employed for estimating stochastic differential equations. They adjust for the bias (inconsistency) caused by discretization of the underlying stochastic process, which is in continuous time. The...

The estimator of the coefficient covariance matrix proposed in White (1982) can be used to robustify the classical Wald test. Sampling experiments recently performed on linear regressions and simultaneous equation models, however, suggest that such an estimator tends to underestimate the...

Five alternative techniques have been applied to measure the degree of uncertainty associated with the forecasts produced by a macro-model of the French economy, the Mini-DMS developed at INSEE. They are bootstrap, analytic simulation on coefficients, Monte Carlo on coefficients, parametric...

In this paper, a package implemented at the Scientific Center of IBM Italy in Pisa for the stochastic simulation of linear and non-linear econometric models is presented. After a survey on the adopted methodologies, the input requirements and the produced output are described in some details,...

Markov Switching models have been successfully applied to many economic problems. The most popular version of these models implies that the change in the state is driven by a Markov Chain and that the state is an exogenous discrete unobserved variable. This hypothesis seems to be too...

This paper is concerned with the contribution to forecast errors of errors in the estimated structural coefficients of a macro-econometric model (simultaneous equations). Its main purpose is to perform, on several "real-world" models, an empirical comparison of alternative techniques available...

In nonlinear econometric models, the evaluation of forecast errors is usually performed, completely or partially, by resorting to stochastic simulation. However, for evaluating the specific contribution of errors in estimated structural coefficients, several alternative methods have been...