To assess how financial markets and commodities are inter-related, this paper introduces a ‘volatility surprise’ component into the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) framework. We develop an econometric model in which returns and volatility allow to influence pairs of...

This article adopts the asymmetric DCC with one exogenous variable (ADCCX) model developed by Vargas (2008), by updating the concept of ‘volatility surprise’ to capture cross-market relationships. Current methods for measuring spillovers do not focus on volatility interactions, and neglect...

This article aims at establishing an understanding of the common risk factors in commodity markets, as well as their interactions with equities, currencies and interest rates. Since commodity markets often exhibit cross-sectional dependency, common risk factors exist and can be identified. By...

This paper proposes a new empirical methodology for computing a cross-market index – coined CMI – based on the Factor DCC-model. This approach solves both problems of treating high-dimensional data and estimating time-varying conditional correlations. We provide an application to a...

This paper contains the first empirical application of the Dynamic Equicorrelation (DECO) model to a cross-market dataset composed of equities, bonds, foreign exchange rates and commodities during 1983-2013. The originality of our approach consists in examining the volatility equicorrelations,...

This article brings new insights on the role played by (implied) volatility on the WTI crude oil spot price. An increase in the volatility subsequent to an increase in the oil price (i.e. inverse leverage effect) remains the dominant effect as it might reflect the fear of oil consumers to face...

This paper develops two nonlinear cointegration models - a VECM with structural shift and a threshold cointegration model - applied to carbon spot and futures prices. The results extend the previous findings by Chevallier (2010), who studied this topic with a linear VECM. First, in the VECM with...

This paper studies the nonlinear adjustment between industrial production and carbon prices – coined as ‘the carbon-macroeconomy relationship’ – in the EU 27. We model carbon price returns and industrial production as nonlinear and state-dependent, with dynamics depending on the sign and...

This article investigates firms’ banking and pooling behaviors in the context of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) during Phase I (2005-2007). It provides an overview of the questions raised at the firm-level by the introduction and implementation of the EU trading system in terms of...

This paper constitutes the first exercise of nonparametric modeling applied to carbon markets. The framework of analysis is carefully detailed, and the empirical application unfolds in the case of BlueNext spot and ECX futures prices. The data is gathered in daily frequency from April 2005 to...