This paper provides an introduction to the mathematical theory of possibility, and examines how this tool can contribute to the analysis of far distant futures. The degree of mathematical possibility of a future is a number between O and 1. It quantifies the extend to which a future event is...

Looking back over three and a half Assessment Reports, we see that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has given increasing attention to the management and reporting of uncertainties, but coordination across working groups (WGs) has remained an issue. We argue that there are...

This paper discusses aspects of risk and uncertainty relevant in an interdisciplinary assessment of climate change policy. It opposes not only the objective approach versus the subjective approach, but also situations when precise probabilities are well founded versus situations of broader forms...