Our study tries to explore whether the financial strength proxied by F-score can predict the returns in Chinese stock market and its economic explanations. Results show that the financially stronger firms can generate higher expected raw returns and abnormal returns in Fama-French five-factor...

This paper constructs a manager sentiment index based on the aggregated textual tone of corporate financial disclosures. We find that manager sentiment is a strong negative predictor of future aggregate stock market returns, with monthly in-sample and out-of-sample R2 of 9.75% and 8.38%,...

This paper shows that investors do not fully incorporate cost behavior information into valuation. Firms with higher growth in operating costs generate substantially lower future stock returns and operating performance. An equal-weighted long-short spread portfolio earns an average return of 82...

This paper proposes a two-state predictive regression model and shows that stock market 12-month return (TMR), the time-series momentum predictor of Moskowitz, Ooi, and Pedersen (2012), forecasts the aggregate stock market negatively in good times and positively in bad times. The out-of-sample...

We compare several representative sophisticated model averaging and variable selection techniques of forecasting stock returns. When estimated traditionally, our results confirm that the simple combination of individual predictors is superior. However, sophisticated models improve dramatically...

This study investigates the cross-country impact of U.S. equity market skewness risk. We find that a large decrease in the U.S. market skewness significantly predicts high future returns on international equity markets. The predictability remains significant after controlling for a set of U.S....

We investigate the impact of China's economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the time series variation of Chinese stock market expected returns. Using the news based measure in Baker, Bloom, and Davis (2016), we find that EPU predicts negatively future stock market return at various horizons. This...

This paper investigates the effects of U.S. economic variables on the time variation of Chinese stock market volatility. We find that several U.S. economic variables such as the dividend price ratio, dividend yield and industrial production strongly forecast the future monthly volatilities of...

This paper constructs a global anomaly index based on the 153 long-short portfolio returns of 33 stock markets. We find that global anomaly index is a strong negative predictor of future aggregate stock returns in international markets both in- and out-of-sample. It captures the common change in...

This paper studies the intertemporal relation between U.S. volatility risk and international equity risk premia. We show that a common volatility risk factor constructed from the option-implied U.S. forward variances positively and significantly predicts future stock market returns of the...