The changes on the EU gas market are likely to affect Europe's relations with its natural gas suppliers who are facing increasing competition. Heading this list of producing countries is Russia. Gas relations between Russia and the EU are characterized by strong interdependence. But these...

L'industrie pétrolière russe est depuis le début des années 1990 marquée par d'importants mouvements de réforme de son modèle organisationnel. La montée en puissance de l'Etat au sein de l'industrie est le facteur le plus souvent mentionné pour caractériser les évolutions en cours....

This paper shows that some policy features are crucial to explain the decision of the policyholder to surrender her contract. We point it out by applying two segmentation models to a life insurance portfolio: the Logistic Regression model and the Classification And Regression Trees model....

In this paper we raise the matter of considering a stochastic modeling of the surrender rate instead of the classical S-shaped deterministic curve (in function of the spread), still used in almost all insurance companies. A stochastic model in which surrenders are conditionally independent with...

We present a new model of loss processes in insurance. The process is a couple $(N, \, L)$ where $N$ is a univariate Markov-modulated Poisson process (MMPP) and $L$ is a multivariate loss process whose behaviour is driven by $N$. We prove the strong consistency of the maximum likelihood...

For operational purposes, in Enterprise Risk Management or in insurance for example, it may be important to estimate remote (but not extreme) quantiles of some function ƒ of some random vector. The call to ƒ may be time- and resource-consuming so that one aims at reducing as much as possible...

La sécurité gazière et les risques économiques occupent une place particulièrement importante entre l'UE et la Russie. Les relations gazières entre l'UE et la Russie ont été déstabilisées en profondeur par des changements institutionnels majeurs avec d'un coté l'effondrement de...

The Russian gas sector is undergoing significant changes which is opening the way for an original reform. Because of the particular institutional and economic context of the country, this reorganisation is not taking place along the lines of the de-integrated model of the EU. It is characterised...

The purpose of this paper is to point out that an asymptotic rule "A+B/u" for the ultimate ruin probability applies to a wide class of dependent risk models, in discrete and continuous time. Dependence is incorporated through a mixing approach among claim amounts or claim inter-arrival times,...

This paper studies a new risk measure derived from the expected area in red introduced in Loisel (2005). Specifically, we derive various properties of a risk measure defined as the smallest initial capital needed to ensure that the expected time-integrated negative part of the risk process on a...