Minimal discounted distorted expectations across a range of stress levels are employed to model risk acceptability in markets. Interactions between discounting and stress levels used in measure changes are accommodated by lowering discount rates for the higher stress levels. Acceptability...

How do risk-neutral return skews evolve over time and in the cross-section of individual stocks? We document the differential pricing of individual equity options versus the market index, and relate it to variations in the skew. The change-of-measure induced by marginal-utility tilting of the...

In this paper, we investigate the behavior of the bitcoin (BTC) price through the vanilla options available on the market. We calibrate a series of Markov models on the option surface. In particular, we consider the Black-Scholes model, Laplace model, five Variance Gamma related models and the...

In this paper, we show how we can deploy machine learning techniques in the context of traditional quant problems. We illustrate that for many classical problems, we can arrive to speed-ups of several orders of magnitude by deploying machine learning techniques based on Gaussian process...

Learning the pre limited liability value process of equity claims and its relationship to the stock price is an answer to the financial jeorpardy question when observed option prices are the answer being given by the market. Constant dollar equity holder values, prior to the imposition of...

Allowing for correlated squared returns across two consecutive periods, portfolio theory for two periods is developed. This correlation makes it necessary to work with non-Gaussian models. The two period conic portfolio problem is formulated and implemented. This development leads to a mean ask...

Investment activities are enhanced by a regular positioning in options. Results are presented for the S&P 500 index as the underlying asset. Two base activities, i) long the index and ii) a dynamic portfolio periodically rebalanced to a 60% equity stake, are considered for enhancement. In each...

Exponentials of squared returns in Gaussian densities, with their consequently thin tails, are replaced by the absolute return to form Laplacian and exponentially tilted Laplacian densities at unit time. Scaling provides densities at other maturities. Stochastic processes with these marginals...

Three particular models of dependence in asset returns with non-Gaussian marginals are investigated on daily return data for sector exchange traded funds. The first model is a full rank Gaussian copula (FGC). The second models returns as a linear mixture of independent Lévy processes (LML). The...

Option calibrated exponential Lévy models are observed to typically overprice crash cliquets. Typical model Lévy tails are then not crash market consistent. A general tail thinning strategy is introduced that may be implemented on a class of parametric Lévy models closed under exponential...