In Ireland the link between real disequilibrium (such as the unemployment gap) and inflation (either price or wage) is blurred by external factors, operating through traded goods price inflation. Attempts to extract information about the unobservable NAIRU from aggregate inflation measures, such...

This paper outlines the practical steps which need to be undertaken to use autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series models for forecasting Irish inflation. A framework for ARIMA forecasting is drawn up. It considers two alternative approaches to the issue of identifying ARIMA...