Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...

Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...

This paper attempts to combine the analysis of wage (income) polarization with that of wage (income) mobility. Using the polarization index PG recently proposed by Deutsch et al. (2007) it shows that, when taking the identity of the individuals into account (working with panel data), a...