The general elections held in February 2013 marked an earthquake in Italian politics. The two coalitions on the center-left and center-right that had governed Italy alternately between 1996 and 2011 together lost 11 million votes compared to the 2008 elections. The explanations advanced for this...

This paper aims to analyze phenomena such as the diffusion of non-standard work and the incidence of low-paid work from a distinctive, and generally neglected angle: that of occupations. Much can be gained from a more fine-grained analysis of labour market dynamics that casts light on which...

This paper analyzes the implications of unobserved heterogeneity in discrete-time, discrete-choice microsimulation models. We compare the predictions coming from simple pooled probit estimates with those obtained using random effect dynamic probit models, in a dynamic microsimulation of...

Starting from an agent-based interpretation of the well-known Bass innovation diffusion model, we perform a Montecarlo analysis of the performance of a method of simulated moment estimator. We show that nonlinearities of the moments lead to a small bias in the estimates in small populations, and...

This paper contributes to the relatively underdeveloped empirical literature on the demand for culture, testing whether the existence of cultural goods located in one region increases the demand for cultural goods in other regions. The measurement of such spillovers is important to determine the...

Dynamic microsimulation modeling involves two stages: estimation and forecasting. Unobserved heterogeneity is often considered in estimation, but not in forecasting, beyond trivial cases. Non-trivial cases involve individuals that enter the simulation with a history of previous outcomes. We show...

In all European countries, emergency policy measures have been introduced in order to counteract the employment consequences of the economic crisis. In the context of variously composed anticrisis packages, many European countries have used Short-Time Work (STW) schemes, that is measures to...

The aim of the paper is to assess whether there is free-riding in teams when team production is sequential and when there is competition between teams. This a common case, which, however, has not been considered in the literature so far. We develop a model where team members contributing earlier...

This paper will be published in M. Magara and S. Sacchi (eds.), The Politics of Social and Industrial Reform, Cheltenham, Edward Elgar, forthcoming in 2013.

This paper analyzes the evolution of employment policy in Italy, focusing on the period from the mid-1990s to the economic crisis started in 2008. Two aspects of the policy change process are taken into consideration: its nature and its dynamics. As regards the former, three dimensions -...