The main ideas in this paper are: (a) that CGE models can be used in forecasting; and (b) that forecasts matter for policy analysis. We demonstrate these ideas by describing an application of MONASH, a dynamic CGE model of Australia, to the Australian motor vehicle industry over the period 1987...

Fifty years ago the Norwegian economist, Leif Johansen, gave us what is now recognised as the first CGE model. While Johansen was first, he is not the father of the whole field. CGE modelling in different styles sprang largely independently from several sources. This paper describes how...

Beginning with [Johansen (1960)], computable general equilibrium (CGE) models have been widely applied to study the impact of a variety of economic policy issues. These include changes in macroeconomic or regional economic policies such as tariff reductions, changes in labour force demographics...

Validity is a key issue for consumers of computable general equilibrium (CGE) modeling services. What assurance can producers of CGE results give to consumers that a CGE analysis: (i) is computationally sound, (ii) uses accurate up-to-date data, (iii) adequately captures behavioral and...

MONASH models are descended from Johansen's 1960 model of Norway. The first MONASH model was ORANI, used in Australia's tariff debate of the 1970s. Johansen's influence combined with institutional arrangements in their development gave MONASH models distinctive characteristics, facilitating a...

This report builds on an earlier paper discussed by Peter Dixon with the Senate Select Committee on December 18, 1998 which describes a single simulation, with the MONASH model, of the effects of the tax package. A revised version of this simulation is presented here as the central case ;...

President Obama's National Export Initiative is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import-demand curves and domestic export-supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy-wide model of the...