We study a long-run risk model with a stochastic consumption growth rate, a stochastic volatility, a stochastic jump intensity, and a stochastic mean reversion level for the latter two processes. First, using a square-root specification instead of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process suggested by...

We study the estimation, the dynamics, and the predictability of option-implied risk-neutral moments (variance, skewness, and kurtosis) for individual stocks from various perspectives. We first show that it is in the estimation of the higher moments essential to use an interpolation with a...

We decompose total disagreement about macro variables into the disagreement among optimists (i.e., forecasters whose forecast exceeds a certain threshold) and pessimists. Optimistic (pessimistic) forecasters tend to disagree more in good (bad) times. Pessimistic (optimistic) disagreement...

This paper examines continuous-time models for the S&P 100 index and its constituents. We find that the jump process of the typical stock looks significantly different than that of the index. Most importantly, the average size of a jumps in the returns of the typical stock is positive, while it...

A growing literature analyzes the cross-section of single stock option returns, virtually always under the (implicit or explicit) assumption of a monotonically decreasing pricing kernel. Using option returns, we non-parametrically provide significant and robust evidence that the pricing kernel...

Cross-sectional asset pricing tests with GMM can generate spuriously high explanatory power for factor models when the moment conditions are specified such that they allow the estimated factor means to substantially deviate from the observed sample averages. In fact, by shifting the weights on...