We show that information about the counterparty of a trade affects the future trading decisions of individual traders. The effect is such that traders tend to reverse their order flow in line with the better-informed counterparties. Informed traders primarily incorporate their own private as...

We use survey data on expectations about future monetary policy to decompose excess returns to fed funds (FF) futures and overnight index swaps (OIS) into a term premium and an expectation error component. We find that excess returns are almost entirely driven by expectation errors, while term...

We develop a model with informationally heterogeneous investors to explain return predictability on and after earnings announcements. We find evidence for the model's key predictions: (1) Announcement returns are on average positive even though earnings surprises are mean-zero; (2) Firms with...

We empirically investigate time variation in capital market integration and consumption risk sharing using data for 16 countries from 1875 to 2012. We show that there has been considerable variation over time in the degrees of capital market integration and consumption risk sharing and that...

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of foreign exchange endusers. The results suggest that order flows...

We study the information in order flows in the world's largest over-the-counter market, the foreign exchange market. The analysis draws on a data set covering a broad cross-section of currencies and different customer segments of foreign exchange end-users. The results suggest that order flows...

We assess the properties of currency value strategies based on real exchange rates in a cross-sectional portfolio setting. We find that real exchange rates predict currency excess returns, but in a way that is inconsistent with the notion of currency value because a high valuation level...

We assess the properties of currency value strategies based on real exchange rates in a cross-sectional portfolio setting. We find that real exchange rates predict currency excess returns, but in a way that is inconsistent with the notion of currency value because a high valuation level...

An increase in a country's sovereign risk, as measured by credit default swap spreads, is accompanied by a contemporaneous depreciation of its currency and an increase of its volatility and crash risk. The relation between currency excess returns and sovereign risk is mainly driven by default...

We built the largest dataset of high-frequency exchange rates so far. Our sample covers the spot prices and order flows of 19 currency pairs over the last 15 years measured on Reuters and EBS at the thirty-second frequency. We show that common, price-based factors describe exchange rate dynamics...