We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

We identify a component of monetary policy news that is extracted from high-frequency changes in risky asset prices. These surprises, which we call "risk shifts", are uncorrelated, and therefore complementary, to risk-free rate surprises. We show that (i) risk shifts capture the lion's share of...

Although real integration conceptually plays an important role for the comovement of international equity markets, documenting this link empirically has proven challenging. We construct a new dataset of theory-guided, relevant measures of bilateral trade in final and intermediate goods and...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminatingbetween competing sources of this return predictability...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

Traditionally and understandably, the microscope of market microstructure has focused on attributes of single assets. Little theoretical attention and virtually no empirical work has been devoted to common determinants of liquidity nor to their empirical manifestation, correlated movements in...

We provide a model with overconfident risk neutral investors, and therefore no risk premia, in which a price-based portfolio such as HML earns positive expected returns and loads on fundamental macroeconomic variables. Furthermore, loadings on such portfolios are proxies for mispricing, and...

We explore the sharp uptrend in trading activity during recent years. Higher turnover has been associated with more frequent smaller trades, which have progressively formed a larger fraction of trading volume over time. Evidence indicates that secular decreases in trading costs have influenced...

We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. Empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability by...