This paper examines return predictability when the investor is uncertain about the right state variables. A novel feature of the model averaging approach used in this paper is to account for finite-sample bias of the coefficients in the predictive regressions. Drawing on an extensive...

This paper investigates whether measuring consumption risk over long horizons can improve the empirical performance of the Consumption CAPM for size and value premia in international stock markets (US, UK, and Germany). In order to account for commonalities in size and book-tomarket sorted...

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...

Demand is growing for a better understanding of how assets are priced in countries outside of the U.S. While financial data are available for many firms world-wide, it is important to have a reliable and replicable method of constructing high-quality systematic risk factors from these data. This...

This paper investigates whether measuring consumption risk over long horizons can improve the empirical performance of the Consumption CAPM for size and value premia in international stock markets (US, UK, and Germany). In order to account for commonalities in size and book-tomarket sorted...

A major obstacle for research in international asset pricing and corporate finance has been a lack of reliable and publicly available data on international common risk factors and portfolios. To address this gap, we provide a step-by-step description of how appropriately screened data from...

Based on individual expectations from the Survey of Professional Forecasters, we construct a real-time proxy for expected term premium changes on long-term bonds. We empirically investigate the relation of these bond term premium expectations with expectations about key macroeconomic variables...

Demand is growing for a better understanding of how assets are priced in countries outside of the U.S. While financial data are available for many firms world-wide, it is important to have a reliable and replicable method of constructing high-quality systematic risk factors from these data. This...