This paper offers a model in which asset rices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firms' prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are linearly related to both risk and mispricing measures (e.g., fundamental/price ratios)....

We use proprietary brokerage data to study trading patterns within a well-known financial market bubble: that in the Chinese warrants market. Persistently successful investors traded very actively and exhibited characteristics of de facto market makers. Unskilled investors unprofitably...

The distance between short- and long-run moving averages of prices (MAD) predicts future equity returns in the cross-section. Annualized value-weighted alphas from the accompanying hedge portfolios are around 9%, and the predictability goes beyond momentum, 52-week highs, profitability, and...

How are trading activity and performance impacted by material events during individual investors' lifetimes? Using a unique dataset, we identify transfers of common stock initiated by the major event of divorce and analyze trading patterns and performance of divorced traders. In aggregate,...

Regression regularization techniques show that deviations of accounting fundamentals from their preceding moving averages forecast drifts in equity market prices. The deviations-based predictability survives a comprehensive set of prominent anomalies. The profitability applies strongly to the...

We consider a setting where investors receive private signals about cash flows as well as their betas. We obtain a closed-form solution for the case where informed agents are risk neutral and the market maker is risk averse. Market liquidity is non-linear and non-monotonic (under reasonable...

Illiquidity measures appear to be related to monthly realized returns but do they impact long-run costs of capital (CoC) for firms? Using U.S. data, we find cross-sectional evidence that, controlling for market capitalization, the Amihud (2002) measure of illiquidity is negatively related to CoC...

We propose a protocol for identifying genuine risk factors. A genuine risk factor must be related to the covariance matrix of returns, must be priced in the cross-section of returns, and should yield a reward-to-risk ratio that is reasonable enough to be consistent with risk pricing. A market...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

We analyze the relation between equity returns, risk, and a rich set of security characteristics that includes institutional ownership, Samp;P 500 index membership, analyst following, and dispersion in analyst forecasts, in addition to previously examined variables such as the book-to-market...