We show that China’s real estate climate index (RECI) can be used to forecast the aggregate stock market return. It outperforms popular return predictors both in- and out-of-sample, especially at the monthly horizon. Additionally, RECI’s predictive ability is stronger among stocks of small...

We employ a repertoire of machine learning models to explore the cross-sectional return predictability in cryptocurrency markets. While all methods generate substantial economic gains, those that account for nonlinearities and interactions fare the best. The return predictability derives mainly...

We estimate the relative signal jump variance (RSJV) as the difference between the realized positive half-variance and negative half-variance divided by the realized variance using high-frequency intraday data and investigate its role in the cross-sectional pricing in the Chinese stock market....

We hypothesize that local economic discomfort influences investors’ risk aversion, leading to cross-sectional variation in risk premia in segmented equity markets. To test this assertion, we employ the misery index (MI)—which aggregates both unemployment and inflation rates—as a gauge of...

The COVID-19 pandemic has exerted a remarkable impact on stock market volatility around the globe. Can vaccination programs revert these adverse effects? To answer this question, we scrutinize daily data from 66 countries from January 1st, 2020, to February 18th, 2021. We provide convincing...

We explore the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the term structure of interest rates. Using data from developed and emerging countries, we demonstrate that the expansion of the disease significantly affects sovereign bond markets. The growth of confirmed cases significantly widens the term...

Are equity anomalies a product of p-hacking in the asset pricing literature? To shed new light on this question, we perform a true out-of-sample study of 30 well-known anomalies in the cross-section of returns. We replicate these anomalies in a novel hand-collected dataset of firms listed on the...

We explore the relationship between two novel Twitter-based measures of economic and market uncertainty and the performance of four major cryptocurrencies. Using a battery of methods - quantile regressions, Granger-causality in distributions using copula functions, and directional predictability...

The relationship between political motivations and underpricing of public offerings of privatized companies is to a great extend unexplored field in the global academic literature. In this paper we offer a new explanation for the IPO underpricing anomaly. We formulate the election gimmick...

One of the most extensively documented anomalies concerning initial public offerings is IPO underpricing. Although the phenomenon is well analyzed and explained, most of the researches ignore the individual investor's costs, constraints and perspective. We suppose that after accounting for these...