Showing 1 - 10 of 328
We used neural-network based modelling to generalize the linear econometric return models and compare their out-of-sample predictive ability in terms of different performance measures under three density specifications.(...)
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005844728
The long memory characteristic of financial market volatility is well documentedand has important implications for … volatility forecasting and optionpricing. When fitted to the same data, different volatility models calculate theunconditional … variance differently and could have very different volatility persistentparameters. Hence, they produce very different …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870000
The estimation of multivariate GARCH models remains a challenging task, even in modern computer environments. This … of the time otherwise required. The proposed method is a two-step procedure, separating the estimation of the correlation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005857739
We consider the modelling of rare events in financial time series,and introduce a marked point process model for the excesses of thetime series over a high threshold that combines a self-exciting processfor the exceedances with a mark (size) dependent process. This allowsrealistic models for...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005858382
I examine determinants of stochastic relative risk aversion in conditional asset pricing models. I first develop time-series specification tests with nonlinear state-space models with heteroskedasticity based on Merton (1973)'s ICAPM. I then established the following facts. First, the surplus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870706
The recent financial crisis has accentuated the fact that extreme outcomes have been overlookedand not dealt with adequately. While extreme value theories have existed for a long time, themultivariate variant is difficult to handle in the financial markets due to the prevalentheteroskedasticity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005870713
Controllability of longer-term interest rates requires that the persis-tence of their deviations from the central bank's policy rate (i.e. thepolicy spreads) remains suffciently low. This paper applies fractionalintegration techniques to assess the persistence of policy spreads ofeuro area money...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865428
This paper proposes a novel approach to the combination of conditional covariancematrix forecasts based on the use of the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). Itis shown how the procedure can be generalized to deal with large dimensional systemsby means of a two-step strategy. The finite sample...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865451
This paper investigates the intraday response of T-bond futures pricesto surprises in headline figures of U.S. macroeconomic reports. Analyzing thetime series properties and the information content of the macroeconomic newsflow, the paper seeks an answer to the question, what determines the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005865824
We analyze if and to what extent fundamental macroeconomic factors, temporary influencesor more structural factors have contributed to the low levels of US bond yields over the lastfew years. For that purpose, we start with a general model of interest rate determination. Theempirical part...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005866095