This paper undertakes an empirical inquiry concerning the determinants of long-term interest rates on US Treasury securities. It applies the bounds testing procedure to cointegration and error correction models within the autoregressive distributive lag (ARDL) framework, using monthly data and...

This paper surveys the literature on the linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes. It focuses on three major questions. First, what are the basic theoretical linkages between asset prices and macroeconomic outcomes? Second, what is the empirical evidence supporting these...

We link daily price-changes for 11 Dow-Jones companies for 5 three month periods to the prevailing interest rate. In "normal times", the interest carrying cost of owning a share exceeds average price change. In periods of high volatility (eg. August to November, 2008), average price change...

This study quantifies the dynamic interrelationship between the KOSPI index return and search query data derived from the Naver DataLab. The empirical estimation using a bivariate GARCH model reveals that negative contemporaneous correlations between the stock return and the search frequency...

This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the macroeconomic implications of financial imperfections. It focuses on two major channels through which financial imperfections can affect macroeconomic outcomes. The first channel, which operates through the demand side of finance...

This paper answers fundamental questions that have preoccupied modern economic thought since the 18th century. What is the aggregate real rate of return in the economy? Is it higher than the growth rate of the economy and, if so, by how much? Is there a tendency for returns to fall in the...

During the global financial crisis, stressed market conditions led to skyrocketing corporate bond spreads that could not be explained by conventional modeling approaches. This paper builds on this observation and sheds light on time-variations in the relationship between systematic risk factors...

I study financial product innovation in a model with two classes of agents: “sophisticated” and “unsophisticated.” Unsophisticated agents are hit with frictions that lower the return to a conventional asset they hold. Sophisticated agents construct financial innovations that are perfect...

Motivated by the problems of the conventional model in rationalizing market data, we derive the equilibrium interest rate and risk premiums using recursive utility in a continuous-time model. We use the stochastic maximum principle to analyze the model. This method uses forward/backward...

We use information from over two million trading strategies that are randomly generated using real data, and from strategies that survive the publication process to infer the statistical properties of the set of strategies that could have been studied by researchers. Using this set, we compute...