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Global commodity cycles and linkages a FAVAR approach
Lombardi, Marco J.; Osbat, Chiara; Schnatz, Bernd - 2010
In this paper we examine linkages across non-energy commodity price developments by means of a factor-augmented VAR model (FAVAR). From a set of non-energy commodity price series, we extract two factors, which we identify as common trends in metals and a food prices. These factors are included...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605216
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Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks
Van Robays, Ine - 2012
demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial … production volatility, significantly increases the responsiveness of oil prices to oil shocks. This implies a lower price … volatility. Also the impact of oil shocks on economic activity appears to be significantly stronger in uncertain times. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010288244
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Crude oil prices and the euro-dollar exchange rate: A forecasting exercise
Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus; Breitenfellner, Andreas - 2008
If oil exporters stabilize the purchasing power of their export revenues in terms of imports, exchange rate developments (and particularly, developments in the US dollar/euro exchange rate) may contain information about oil price changes. This hypothesis depends on three conditions: (a) OPEC has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293389
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Long memory and volatility dynamics in the US dollar exchange rate
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alana, Luis A. - 2010
particularly interested in volatility modelling and forecasting given their importance for FOREX dealers. Compared with previous …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010271381
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Modelling the Effects of Oil Prices on Global Fertilizer Prices and Volatility
Chen, Ping-Yu; Chang, Chia-Lin; Chen, Chi-Chung; … - 2013
mean and volatility. The endogenous structural breakpoint unit root test, ARDL model, and alternative volatility models … price while the volatility of global fertilizer prices and crude oil price from March to December 2008 are higher than in …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010326493
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The crisis in the foreign exchange market
Melvin, Michael; Taylor, Mark P. - 2009
implications for exchange rates, volatility, returns to currency investing, and transaction costs. This blow-by-blow" narrative is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010266026
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Oil prices, exchange rates and asset prices
Fratzscher, Marcel; Schneider, Daniel; Van Robays, Ine - 2014
This paper takes a financial market perspective in examining the relationship between oil prices, the US dollar and asset prices, and it exploits the heteroskedasticity for the identification of causality in a multifactor model. It finds a bidirectional causality between the US dollar and oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605734
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An oversimplified inquiry into the sources of exchange rate variability
Kempa, Bernd - 2003
Exchange rates as well as relative price level and output movements are decomposed into components associated with nominal shocks as well as shocks to aggregate supply and aggregate demand. In contrast to previous analyses of such decompositions based on statistical vector autoregression (VAR)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010302260
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Daily Exchange Rate Behaviour and Hedging of Currency Risk
Bos, Charles S.; Mahieu, Ronald J.; van Dijk, Herman K. - 1999
methods. The effects of several model characteristics(unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy tailed …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324426
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Daily Exchange Rate Behaviour and Hedging of Currency Risk
Bos, Charles S.; Mahieu, Ronald J.; van Dijk, Herman K. - 2001
methods. The effects ofseveral modelcharacteristics (unit roots, GARCH, stochastic volatility, heavy taileddisturbance …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010324963