Dependence on credit ratings is an important issue for managing credit risk. This paper assesses credit risk using a multivariate Markov chain model that calculates dependence on credit ratings. We demonstrate the practical implementation of the proposed model using the rating data of 15...

The goal of this paper is to present an original and simple analysis aimed to understand why investing in capital markets can be very dangerous for "naive investors". Stock markets display often exploding volatility. They are characterized by instability and subject to external shocks. If...

The paper studies the efficiency of the Indian equity and futures markets by applying statistical techniques to returns and volatility during trading and nontrading hours. Returns have been decomposed into trading and non-trading period returns by taking close to open, open to close and close to...

In this paper, we adopted a continuous-time non-homogeneous mover-stayer model for the measurement of the credit risk associated with bank loans. This model is an extension of a Markov chain model. Furthermore, we extracted the time varying risk premium to convert the mover-stayer model to a...

This paper employs an asymmetric component generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (AC-GARCH) model to test the relation between securities transaction tax (STT) and market volatility. Proponents of an STT argue that such a tax will reduce market volatility by discouraging the...

This paper determines whether the VaR estimation is influenced by conditional distribution of return rates (normal, t-student, GED) and attempts to choose the model which best estimates VaR on a selected example. We considered logarithmic return rates for the WIG-20 index from 1999-2011. Then,...

This paper aims at testing the influence of Subprime Crisis on Chinese stock market returns. By means of newly proposed time series spatial analysis methodology, we investigate the dominance behavior of daily returns on both Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index and Shenzhen Stock Exchange...

Although bonds are less volatile than equities and the median bond fund holds about 200 bonds, bond investors still need to hold more than one bond fund to realize the optimal benefit of diversification. The simulation results show that three to five bond funds reduce standard deviation of...

This paper reviews endogenous growth theories in the light of the modern reality. It seems that economies which are similar in technologies and preferences are expected to converge to the same level of per capita income. The question "How are repetitions of financial crisis best predicted?" is...

In this study, a vector autoregression (VAR) model with time-varying parameters (TVP) to predict the daily Indian rupee (INR)/US dollar (USD) exchange rates for the Indian economy is developed. The method is based on characterization of the TVP as an optimal control problem. The methodology is a...