We show empirically that survey-based measures of expected inflation are significant and strong predictors of future aggregate stock returns in several industrialized countries both in-sample and out-of-sample. By empirically discriminating between competing sources of this return predictability...

This paper addresses questions regarding the dimensionality of the stochastic discount factor and the selection of the best factors that enter it. We analyze these questions theoretically and empirically with a novel methodology which performs both (i) estimation of factor loadings and (ii) best...

To shed light on the formation, expansion, and deflation of bubbles, we study how the cross section of stocks evolves during the 2015 Chinese stock market bubble. Using data on administrative account-level stock holdings covering a representative sample of 18 million retail investors and all...

In this paper, we analyze relevant prior research about equity market anomalies during times of crisis and supplement it with empirical evidence from the Italian market. We create ten Italian equity portfolios ranging from low-risk to high-risk and look at the how economic distress periods and...

We examine the potential of ChatGPT, and other large language models, in predicting stock market returns using sentiment analysis of news headlines. We use ChatGPT to indicate whether a given headline is good, bad, or irrelevant news for firms' stock prices. We then compute a numerical score and...

This paper provides an analysis of the effectiveness of certain return predictors in Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) from January 1990 to December 2011 by employing both portfolio method and cross-sectional regressions. While we found no statistically significant predictive power of beta, total...

Liquidity is an important financial market characteristic, effecting portfolio decisions, and priced risk. During periods of market turmoil, such as occurs during financial crisis, investors have an elevated need for cash and so understanding how liquidity differs during those periods is...

This paper investigates how the stock market reacts to firm level liquidity shocks. We find that negative and persistent liquidity shocks not only lead to lower contemporaneous returns, but also predict negative returns for up to six months in the future. Long-short portfolios sorted on past...

Our paper makes two empirical contributions on REITs' asset pricing over three sequential and mutually exclusive time periods. The first yields the beta estimates of (i) assets, (ii) growth options and (iii) assets-in-place, embedded in the valuations of REITs. We develop a new approach to...

Numerous studies find S-shaped pricing kernels, which is conflicting with standard theory. In contrast to that, based on a novel GARCH model with structural breaks, I show that the pricing kernel is consistently U-shaped. The results are robust to variations in the methodology and hold for...