Incorporating arbitrage-free term-structure dynamics into a semi-structural macro-model, we jointly estimate the real equilibrium interest rate (r*), trend inflation, and term premia for the United States and the euro area, using a Bayesian approach. The natural real rate and trend inflation are...

This paper assesses whether the global fall in inflation expectations together with increased fear of recession, the economic mechanism that drives asset prices in a model with consumption habits, help to explain the downward trajectory in nominal government bond yields and the stock price...