The correlation between stock and bond returns is a cornerstone of asset allocation decisions. The correlation can move considerably over time, which can have a large impact on portfolio construction. Our empirical evidence points to inflation and real returns on short-term bonds, and the...

This paper examines the role of retail investor trading activity on stock price momentum. We find that there is little evidence of momentum for stocks traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX) unconditionally and momentum is concentrated in stocks with high market capitalization and high nominal...

In this paper, we analyze relevant prior research about equity market anomalies during times of crisis and supplement it with empirical evidence from the Italian market. We create ten Italian equity portfolios ranging from low-risk to high-risk and look at the how economic distress periods and...

We examine the potential of ChatGPT, and other large language models, in predicting stock market returns using sentiment analysis of news headlines. We use ChatGPT to indicate whether a given headline is good, bad, or irrelevant news for firms' stock prices. We then compute a numerical score and...

We suggest a procedure to predict individual stock liquidity and study the relation between stock liquidity forecasts and average stock returns. Our forecast model reduces the root-mean-squared error by 12% for the Amihud (2002) liquidity measure compared to realized stock liquidity in the...

This paper provides an analysis of the effectiveness of certain return predictors in Taiwan Stock Exchange (TWSE) from January 1990 to December 2011 by employing both portfolio method and cross-sectional regressions. While we found no statistically significant predictive power of beta, total...

This paper relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Keynes argued that the central bank can influence...

We investigate both theoretically and empirically how unemployment level and its growth affect future stock returns. We find that both a higher unemployment rate and higher growth of unemployment positively predict future stock market returns. In our model, the effects come through their...

This paper investigates how the stock market reacts to firm level liquidity shocks. We find that negative and persistent liquidity shocks not only lead to lower contemporaneous returns, but also predict negative returns for up to six months in the future. Long-short portfolios sorted on past...

We document that properly scaled deviations from put-call parity estimate the contribution of market frictions to expected returns (CFER) accurately, by means of a non-parametric theoretically founded identification strategy. The required conditions are that our estimator predicts the underlying...