This paper analyzes the implications of unobserved heterogeneity in discrete-time, discrete-choice microsimulation models. We compare the predictions coming from simple pooled probit estimates with those obtained using random effect dynamic probit models, in a dynamic microsimulation of...

Forecasting based on random intercepts models requires imputation of the individual permanent effects to the simulated individuals. When these individuals enter the simulation with a history of past outcomes this involves sampling from conditional distributions, which might be unfeasible. I...

In labor markets with worker and firm heterogeneity, the matching between firms and workers may be assortative, meaning that the most productive workers and firms team up. We investigate this with longitudinal population-wide matched employer-employee data from Portugal. Using dynamic panel data...

The study of properties of mean functionals of random probability measures is an important area of research in the theory of Bayesian nonparametric statistics. Many results are known by now for random Dirichlet means but little is known, especially in terms of posterior distributions, for...

The paper proposes a new nonparametric prior for two-dimensional vectors of survival functions (S1,S2). The definition we introduce is based on the notion of Lévy copula and it will be used to model, in a nonparametric Bayesian framework, two-sample survival data. Such an application will yield...

The present paper provides a review of the results concerning distributional properties of means of random probability measures. Our interest in this topic has originated from inferential problems in Bayesian Nonparametrics. Nonetheless, it is worth noting that these random quantities play an...

Aim of this work is to evaluate the overall effect of social origins on secondary school track enrolment in Italy, Germany and Netherlands, allowing for consistent cross country comparisons. PISA 2003 is employed. Track choices are assumed to depend on student's ability and social origins; since...

This paper uses longitudinal data from the BHPS, waves 1-8, to document low-income dynamics and persistence for individuals living in Britain in the 1990s. Poverty exit and re-entry rates are estimated and the resulting distribution of time spent in poverty is calculated, both in single and in...