This paper constructs a global tail risk (GTR) index and examines the role of GTR in predicting the volatility of … international stock markets. Our empirical results emphasize that GTR contains valuable information to predict the stock volatility … improve the forecasting accuracy of international stock market volatility, especially considering the time-varying regime …

studied. This research aims to investigate the interdependent relationships between world GDP, world commodity prices, world … autoregression (TVAR) to capture regime changes in the variables of the world economy. World economic data and Indonesia's economic … data were utilized to prove different responses to the world economic situation in two different regimes. This research …